More Edinburgh homes are now coming up for sale.
This is excellent news for Edinburgh homebuyers and Edinburgh landlords because as properties are no longer flying off the shelf as they did last year, the number of properties available to buy is beginning to return to long-term averages.
This means there is greater choice for Edinburgh buyers, reducing the pressure on Edinburgh house prices and returning us to a more normal Edinburgh housing market for buyers (and sellers).
The average UK estate agency now has 25 homes for sale, the highest level of properties on the market since December 2021
(when it was 21 homes for sale).
However, properties per estate agency brand is not the best judge of the property market.
Let’s look at the actual Edinburgh stats, which tell a slightly different story.
- Edinburgh Detached Homes – Dec 2021, 137 available and today, 266 available – an increase of 94%
- Edinburgh Semi-Detached Homes – Dec 2021, 124 available and today, 174 available – an increase of 40%
- Edinburgh Terraced/Town Houses – Dec 2021, 105 available and today, 152 available – an increase of 45%
- Edinburgh Apartments – Dec 2021, 1,008 available and today, 1,117 available – an increase of 17%
Overall, an increase of 31% – year on year.
(The data for Edinburgh is calculated by looking at all properties and plots for sale within a 7-mile radius of the centre of Edinburgh).
This growth in properties for sale has been seen across all areas of the British Isles. This is important because when there is a more significant availability of homes for sale, this diminishes the increasing pressure on house prices.
So how does a low number of properties for sale make such a huge difference?
Coming into the early spring of 2022, the levels of properties for sale were low (as seen from the low December 2021 stats above). It was ‘Hobson’s choice’ for buyers, so they had to pay top dollar to secure their Edinburgh home.
The value of Edinburgh properties that had their sale agreed upon in the early spring of 2022 (and completed their sale in September 2022) are 6.8% higher than those Edinburgh properties that had a sale agreed upon in the spring of 2021.
The number of properties estate agents have to offer buyers is increasing; this will boost the choice for Edinburgh buyers, meaning we will move into a more balanced Edinburgh housing market.
Nevertheless, it’s vital that Edinburgh sellers place their properties, when they go onto the market, in line with what Edinburgh homebuyers are prepared to pay, given the current hit to their buying power initiated by higher interest rates.
Edinburgh house prices are not expected to crash in 2023,
yet they will be lower than in 2022.
If you are buying and selling in the same property market, it doesn’t matter what happens to property prices.
Also, some might say waiting for Edinburgh house prices to drop will enable them to grab a bargain.
Well, sorry to ‘rain on your parade’, but you should read my recent article that discusses what would happen if Edinburgh first-time buyers waited for Edinburgh house prices to drop. If they waited, because interest rates are rising, the extra mortgage payments would cost them a lot more than the savings made on the purchase price.
What has an effect on the value of your Edinburgh home is the number of properties for sale at any one time compared to the number of buyers. When there is an over-supply of homes for sale, prices go down, and with reduced demand, house prices will go down. So how do the stock levels of properties for sale compare to the past?
If you recall at the start of the article, I stated the average UK estate agency had 25 properties on their books now. In 2018/9, that average was 36 properties for sale (and for added comparison, the long-term average, since records began in 2016, is 49 homes for sale).
As you can see, whilst stock levels have grown, we are a long way off the long-term average.
A great way to determine what will happen to the property market is by measuring that stock level (i.e., the number of properties for sale). Check once a month and see how many properties are for sale. Let me break that down for Edinburgh specifically and how you can judge the market from your sofa.
There are 1,863 properties and plots for sale in Edinburgh now. To give context, the long-term 14-year average is 2,440 properties and plots for sale, yet in the credit crunch, it reached 5,364 properties and plots for sale at one point.
I envisage some component of scarcity to persist in the Edinburgh property market, meaning whilst the house prices that were being achieved in the spring of 2022 won’t be replicated in 2023, it also won’t fall dramatically next year.
The incentives and impetuses to move home have changed in the last six months and will continue to do so into 2023.
