After reading this blog a very nice gentleman on the verge of buying a two bed flat wrote and asked, what’s going to happen to prices in West Drayton in the next five years?
Now lets get the caveats out of the way. Nobody knows the future so there are no guarantees. I am with Naseem Nicholas Taleb on how bad people are at predicting the future. I don’t want to scare people into inaction but only do what you can afford to do, don’t over reach.
Prices in West Drayton will follow national and regional price trends. I think the market will continue to rise but at a steadier pace. I base this on historical date and seeing the rise in prices rises slow in London. But there will be drops from time to time, for example an interest rate rise will hit house price growth.
Prices in the area have risen at about four times the rate of inflation (since 95). The average Hillingdon sold price in 1995 was £85,000 by May this year it was £294,000 according to Land Registry. Inflation alone would make the property worth £140,000 so you can see the level of increase at £209,000 vs the £55,000 increase multiplying through by inflation, £154,000 more.
One of the majot impact on prices of housing in West Drayton is Crossrail. Crossrail will reduce journey times into London by at least half an hour, bringing the capital closer. A 10 min reduction time increases house prices by 6%. But CBRE estimate with central London jouney times cut by 20-30 mins from West Drayton prices will rise by circa 14% over five years. To give credit where it’s due they also have a nice video here about Crossrail.
Having seen that prices in West Drayton and Hayes and Harlington, our two Crossrail stations, have been a little behind prices in Hillingdon which leads me to believe we are still to see the Crossrail impact on house prices in the area. Although prices very close to West Drayton Station have risen.
Although I believe there will be increases in house prices locally, if nothing else because we are still under building the number of houses needed which creates upwards pressure on prices, this is very much your choice when investing in property. As I say to each landlord, if you can take a long term view the prospects are very good. But five years is quite short term don’t be in a position to have to sell if the market is down at the time.
